Interest rates alone will not help the stability of prices

 October 19 evening, the central bank suddenly announced that starting from October 20 financial institutions to raise benchmark deposit and lending interest rates. Have claimed that the central bank to raise interest rates effect. This the stability of prices.
media had previously reported on October 10 in Washington to participate in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Annual Meeting, the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China will not raise interest rates this year . If the central bank rate hike really close, The bad reputation? if the central bank to raise interest rates really be able to br> In fact, the central bank to raise interest rates, more inflation should be the central bank deal with the helplessness of serious options, no time to take into account more of the property market, the stock market and other asset markets. September 11, National Bureau of Statistics data show that China's August CPI rose 3.5%, or more than 0.2 percentage point increase in July. At this point, two consecutive months of CPI has been more than 3% of the mild warning line level, and in August rose a record 22 consecutive months since a new high for the first time more than 3.33 % three-year deposit rate, people's actual savings have been negative for 7 months.
9 January CPI data, although the National Bureau of Statistics not yet available, but in his personal life, who does not feel the price increase in September Compared to August, is greater than that? This has been the inflation control target shortly before the characteristics of Chinese experts recommend: Academy of Social Sciences report that the inflation control target should be raised to 4%; Development and Reform Commission an authoritative experts suggested that China should bear a higher rate of price increases; a famous economist, said that the rate of inflation in China should be alert level to 4.5%, 3% inflation rate is only applicable to cordon the West. < br> However, Moreover, the seventh session of the Fifth Plenary Session, the next five years, China's economic and social development of the main objectives is to ; widespread and rapid growth, carries the benefits. to raise interest rates to stabilize prices of these assets, to prevent fluctuations, reducing the profitability r, l hot money, but help to reduce the disorder in international capital flows. interest rates to stabilize the stock and property markets and other asset prices is the need for an assumption, that is, in this economy, the amount of funding required to maintain relatively stable.
present, zero interest rates in Japan at wielding the context of quantitative easing , will undoubtedly increase interest rates more international capital into China, thus weakening the tightening of liquidity by raising interest rates in the intention. The financial crisis in Southeast Asia and South America, the crisis has shown that when large-scale international capital into an economy will quickly push The asset prices, and when large-scale outflows, will be its asset prices, when the outbreak of the financial crisis.
10 13, central bank data showed third quarter, a substantial increase of 194 billion U.S. dollars foreign exchange reserves, far Super 479 in the first quarter billion dollars, 7.2 billion in the second quarter; which in September is a substantial increase in foreign exchange reserves 100.5 billion U.S. dollars, the highest monthly increase this year, the highest; while at the same time, according to Customs data, in September of trade surplus was 16.88 billion U.S. dollars, decreased by 15.7% last month the chain, fell to its lowest level since May. In addition, foreign exchange increased 289.6 billion yuan in September, compared with 240.1 billion yuan in August continued to ring up the scale.
In this case, the idea that the property market is expected to raise interest rates can change the idea, probably only wishful fantasy. the market may be more willing to expect the central bank's first rate hike in China will intensify cross-border capital flows, lead to more abundant liquidity, prompting prices to rise. in order to maintain price stability, interest rates in the same time, probably have to depend on increased funding for border control efforts.
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