2011 1 7, the U.S. financial services company CMA released the latest survey report, the continuing debt crisis in Europe under the influence of the fourth quarter of 2010, the European countries including Greece, has become a global sovereign bond defaults countries with the highest risk. Among them, the Greek sovereign bond credit default swaps (CDS) prices by 32% in the quarter expanded to replace the previously top-ranked Venezuela as the world's sovereign countries with the highest default risk bonds.
new year, euro-zone countries have entered the peak of treasury bonds, default risk so high and urgent financing needs considerable pressure on the European bond market. Analysts expect the difficulty of financing the increase with the market, Portugal and Spain was forced to seek international assistance in 2011 increased the possibility of its sovereign credit rating downgrade also face the risk of once again.
years ago, part of the shares is expected to soar! Confidential! Market institutions will soon be reversed capital flows have changed dramatically! Main layout of the new money is plotting the highest default risk
Greece
CMA Report show that the fourth quarter of 2010, the highest risk of global sovereign debt default in 10 countries were Greece, Venezuela, Ireland, Portugal, Argentina, Ukraine, Spain, Dubai, Hungary, and Iraq, of which more than half of European countries.
Ireland quarter CDS prices rose by 35%, Spain 50% CDS prices to expand, Belgium default surged 70% of the cost, the three countries are higher than the sovereign debt default risk in Iraq.
quarter, narrowing the cost of global sovereign credit default rate of the order of the largest five countries, Argentina, Latvia, Abu Dhabi, Romania and the United States; sovereign credit the best European countries were Norway, Finland and Sweden.
1 7 January, an increase of the bond sale Portugal, market pressures, Western Europe, the first time beyond the default risk of sovereign debt in emerging European countries. According to CMA data, date, 15 countries in Western Europe used to measure the risk of debt default Markit iTraxx SovX index widened to 218 basis points, a record high of more debt to measure default risk in emerging Europe's Markit iTraxx SovX CEEMEA CDS index higher than 7 basis points.
including, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, CDS prices of sovereign bonds increased 16 basis points, 14 basis points, 7 basis points and 15 basis points.
15 countries in Western Europe, including Germany and the euro area core members of the European debt crisis Emerging European countries, including Romania, Turkey and Ukraine. In early 2010, Western European sovereign bonds of 15 emerging countries CDS is still lower than the 160 basis points or so.
analyst paja Credit Agricole, said: seriously affected. similar yield of 2.045 percent bonds rose nearly 80%, higher than the 2009 rate of 0.592 percent yield is sharply higher than the comparable German bond yields more than 7 times higher.
face more severe challenges. Currently, Portugal has not been announced issuance of treasury bonds next time, but the market expects the issue will be January 12 the 10-year Treasury bonds. Over the past four months, the Portuguese 10-year bond yields from 5.5% to 6.8%.
In addition, the January 13 issue of treasury bonds will be Spain. BNP Paribas is expected in 2011, financing of Spain and Italy will issue bonds totaling 317 billion euros.
euro bonds-intensive high-debt countries, so that the European bond markets cloudy. January 7, Italy 10-year yield rose 5 basis points to 4.83%, higher than comparable German bond yields widened to 189 basis points, only slightly lower than December 1, 2010 the record high of 190 basis points. Spain 10-year yield rose 7 basis points to 5.56%, Ireland 10-year yield rose 8 basis points to 9.27%. Belgian 10-year bond yields rose to 18-month high at 4.17%.
Portugal Spain rating worrying
Thomson Reuters latest survey showed that most analysts expect Portugal to the EU in 2011 to seek assistance. There are some analysts believe that Spain will join later In addition, the survey shows that the two sovereign credit rating in Puxi in the first quarter in 2011 suffered another chance to cut up to 65%, respectively, and 50%.
2010, the Fitch sovereign rating of Portugal from the from the Three rating agencies have warned that the country may also be continued to fall in ratings.
the Swiss central bank confirmed on January 7, due to poor Portuguese sovereign credit rating, the bank at least 12 months have not accepted the Portuguese government bonds as collateral for its repurchase operations. Analysts worry the Swiss central bank's comments will further undermine the market confidence in the Portuguese government bonds, causing the country's ratings were down again.
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